SMM Sep 17 Aluminum Morning Brief:
Futures side, during the previous trading day's night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2510 contract opened at 21,045 yuan/mt, with the highest price at 21,055 yuan/mt, the lowest price at 20,995 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,000 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt or 0.12% from the previous close. Trading volume was 32,600 lots, and open interest was 150,000 lots. In the previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,701/mt, reached a high of $2,720/mt, a low of $2,691/mt, and closed at $2,712/mt.
On the macro front, overall sentiment was bullish. Domestically, from September 15 to 16, Li Qiang, Member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, conducted a survey in Gansu and Qinghai provinces. He emphasized promoting green development, fostering new quality productive forces according to local conditions, accelerating the establishment of a modern industrial system that reflects local characteristics and advantages, and better benefiting the people. Overseas, US industrial production grew 0.1% MoM in August, exceeding the expected decline of 0.1%; US retail sales increased 0.6% MoM in August, surpassing the forecast of 0.2%; additionally, Nick Timiraos, known as the "US Fed whisperer," stated that US Fed officials might cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points by the end of the meeting; all provided favorable support for aluminum prices.
Fundamentals side, September is the traditional peak season, with the proportion of liquid aluminum expected to rebound slightly. Although weekly costs declined due to weakened support from alumina, demand side showed signs of recovery, with most extrusion enterprises reporting improved orders. Last week, the operating rate of leading domestic aluminum extrusion enterprises rose 1 percentage point WoW to 54%. Inventory side, although outflows from warehouses improved in September, premiums and discounts remained under pressure. It is reported that while in-transit cargoes are expected to decrease, the decline is still not significant. This Monday's inventory data showed another buildup, and whether the destocking inflection point will smoothly appear in mid-September requires further observation. Overall, from a macro perspective, the better-than-expected US industrial production and retail sales data for August, strengthened expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, and China's efforts to promote green development all had a bullish impact on aluminum prices. Coupled with the overall recovery in fundamentals, SMM expects aluminum prices to hover at highs in the short term. [
The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
